SMS Voter Turnout Experiment with Rock the Vote

THE PROBLEM: It’s hard for people to follow through on voting. While they may want to vote, they often can’t find the time or forget to show up. For special or mid-term elections, even highly engaged citizens may not vote.

OUR APPROACH: Actions now can often lead to future actions, if these actions are a) tied to one’s identity, and b) part of a sequence where the goal is not accomplished until the final action is complete. Text messages offer a scalable and inexpensive method of asking voters to take a sequence of actions, tied to their identity, to encourage voting. We’ll target citizens who have demonstrated a commitment to being engaged in prior political actions (e.g. signing up with a resistance, issue, or GOTV group).

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We partnered with Rock the Vote to design and test an SMS-based intervention to increase engagement with Rock the Vote’s voter guide and increase voter turnout in the 2017 Virginia election. Over 4,000 Virginia-based Rock the Vote users were randomized to receive one of the following sequences of SMS messages, during the week leading up to the election.

  • Control: Nothing
  • Single Reminder [Election Day reminder only]: “It’s election day for Virginia. Thanks for being a voter!”
  • Multiple Reminders [4 simple reminder messages leading up to election day + Election Day reminder (shown above)]. “Reminder, your Virginia election is on November 8th. That’s x weeks away. See you at the polls!”
  • Behavioral Sequence Reminders
    • Message 1 [Use past behavior to signal identity]: “You took the step to join Rock the Vote so we know you’re committed to this movement. Your next step is to make your plan to vote on November 7th.”
    • Message 2 [Prompt Calendar behavior]: “It’s time to put your voting plan in your calendar. Block off enough time to get there and back.”
    • Message 3 [Social Accountability Action]: “Make sure your friends get to the polls too. Send them a calendar invitation so they don’t forget.”
    • Message 4 [Election Day Reminder]: “It’s election day for Virginia. Thanks for being a voter!”
    • Message 5: [Voting-day; Public Accountability Action]: “After you vote, post about it on social media. This will encourage others to turn out as well.”

MEASUREMENT:

  • Primary outcome variables
    • VA voter turnout (absentee, early, day-of)
    • Voter registration
    • Post-election follow-up measures of additional engagement after the election (e.g., perceived political self-efficacy, future political actions, etc.)

RESULTS:

Results pending the release of the Virginia voter file.